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磐石金融:No. 229 - Rolling the lquidity dice

磐石金融   |   2019-04-16 10:39:57

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摘要:This week the US will be publishing its balance of trade, retail sales, industrial production and flash Markit

  This week the US will be publishing its balance of trade, retail sales, industrial production and flash Markit PMIs data. In Europe we will have UK inflation rate, unemployment, wage growth and retail trade and Eurozone flash Markit PMIs; in Japan we will have the inflation rate, trade balance and Nikkei Flash Manufacturing PMI; While here in China, we will China Q1 GDP growth rate, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. On Friday we had two data points that stand re-examination. New Yuan Loans MAR Actual CNY1690B (Previous CNY885.8B Forecast CNY1200B) Essentially the data underlines the huge effort the banks have made to add liquidity to the downstream. New Yuan Loans averaged 699.67 CNY Billion per month from 2004 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 3,230 CNY Billion in January this year. Therefore Q1 2019 now averages CNY1935 bn per month and almost 3 times the usual average. This lending can be further illuminated in my favorite data point Total Social Financing which on Friday came in at Actual CNY2.86tn (Previous CNY 0.703tn Forecast CNY1.74tn) significantly above already elevated market expectations. Total social financing is a broad measure of credit and liquidity available in the economy. Liquidity in the private sector in China averaged 0.96tn CNY from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 4.64tn CNY in January this year. Therefore we can say the Q1 average at is 2.73tn almost 3 times the long-term average and one probably needs to look no further as to the source on the Shanghai composite 29% rise. And it should be noted we have the effect of the Chinese tax cuts is yet to come. Thereis no previous example of a monetary and fiscal policy injection of this scale, and as such is somewhat experimental, the outturn being no means guaranteed, This somewhat depressed athlete has been given a massive jolt of a performance-enhancing drug, how long the effect will last and if it will dolong term damage we will wait and see. But for the moment this athlete is consuming the drug as fast as it can.

  Have a good day

  Joh

  John Browning先生于2002至2004年担任伦敦金属交易所LME的董事会成员和电子商务委员会主席,被业界公认在建立LME电子交易平台方面做出过突出贡献。

  2008年,在移居到亚洲之前,Browning先生为伦敦巴克莱资本集团Barclays Capital电子交易部董事。在新际金融Newedge任职香港金属部主管时,他与石成虎先生共同开发了世界上第一个可同时交易国内和国外期货市场的套利交易系统。创立磐石之前,Browning先生任职Jefferies香港商品部董事总经理

特别声明:本文为天眼自媒体平台“天眼号”作者上传并发布,仅代表该作者观点。天眼仅提供信息发布平台。

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